Why Ohio Will not be Florida

aka why the networks were right to call Ohio when they did.

Ok, for those that are unaware - Ohio was called by NBC and Fox for Bush, giving him the election. CNN, ABC, and CBS are saying that it's too close to call. However, as you will see, that position doesn't hold up. Time to crunch some raw data.

With 100% of the precincts reporting in Ohio, Bush has a 136221 vote lead. However, the Kerry camp is saying that once the provisional ballots are counted, Kerry will carry the state (for those that are unaware, if someone went to the polls, and wasn't on the book, or there was a problem with their registration, they could ask for a provisional ballot which would be figured out after election day). The assumption is that most provisional ballots were given to first time voters, who democrats apparently expect to break for Kerry. But the numbers don't add up.

The first thing that needs to be looked at are the number of provisional ballots to be counted. The Kerry camp is claiming that it's around 250,000. Republicans are claiming it's more in the range of 130,000. The number is important, because the higher the number, the lower percentage that Kerry has to hope for in order to take Ohio. The breakdown goes something like this (values are approximate, raw data available if you ask, as the table code on this doesn't want to look right):

# of Prov Ratio (Kerry : Bush)
250,000 3.4 : 1
225,000 4.1 : 1
200,000 5.3 : 1
175,000 7.5 : 1
150,000 21 : 1
125,000 Mathematically eliminated

So, using the best case scenario of 250,000 provisional ballots counted, Kerry needs to take 77% of those ballots. With the expectation that provisional ballots = new voters = Kerry supporters, that might not be unheard of. However, consider the raw data on Ohio from CNN. New voters broke for Kerry my a much smaller margin, 54-46%. Given that this new voter data is the fairest standard to apply to the provisionals, it seems highly unlikely that Kerry will get 77% of these votes.

Also, that assumes that all 250,000 are counted. This is also unlikely. A good number of those will likely be eliminated (reasoning to follow - first, historical numbers). Unlike many other states, Ohio had a provisional ballot mechanism in place in 2000. I saw somewhere that in 2000, 80% of the provisionals were counted. 80% of 250,000 is 200,000. Using that number, Kerry has to win 84% of the provisional vote to top Bush. That's even farther out there, and I don't think that even the craziest lefty would think that Kerry would get that much of the vote.

So, the goal of the Kerry camp is clear. In order to even have a shot at this, they have to count as many provisional ballots as possible. So prepare to hear the refrain of "count all the votes" again, even if the votes aren't legit. On the other side, you're going to have Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell enforcing Ohio election law. Prior to the election, he came under fire for throwing out some voter registrations due to various reasons laid out in the law - incomplete forms, invalid addresses, registrations on wrong stock of paper, etc. Based on Ohio election law, I would find it unlikely that 80% of the provisionals will be counted. So look to Kerry, Boies and company to resort to what they tried in Florida in 2000 - change the rules of the game in the middle of the game. They're going to try to get the courts to force Blackwell to count everything. Thankfully, this is a big area where Ohio is not Florida 2000 all over again. Needless to say, whatever suits are filed will eventually end up in the Ohio Supreme Court. In Florida, you had a far left court that simply changed the laws the legislature made as they see fit. In Ohio, you're probably going to see a far more conservative court that simply applies the laws on the books. At that point, the US Supreme Court probably won't get involved (they only did so in 2000 because the Florida SC was so blatant in writing new laws). Based on election laws and legal machinations, I would suggest the number of 200,000 provisional ballots is extremely rosy, and will likely be lower. Remember, the fewer the provisional ballots, the higher the percentage Kerry has to win, and such results are statistically unlikely using the evidence at hand.

Now, I also believe that the Kerry camp will have a secondary goal. As seen above, it's somewhat unlikely that the provisionals will win Ohio for Kerry outright. So the secondary goal is to at least get enough votes to send Ohio into recount hell, like they did in Florida 4 years ago. Ohio law calls for an automatic recount when the results are within .25%. Giving a voting turnout of 5,478,202, and automatic recount will take place if the vote difference is 13695. That means Kerry needs to gain 122526 from the provisional ballots to force the recount. Once that's done, Boies et al can play their Florida games from 2000 all over again (but that probably won't work either, explained below). Here's the ratio breakdown to force a recount:

# of Prov Ratio (Kerry : Bush)
250,000 2.95 : 1
225,000 3.40 : 1
200,000 4.10 : 1
175,000 5.70 : 1
150,000 10.0 : 1
125,000 Mathematically eliminated

Obviously, slightly better numbers for Kerry, but not by much. With 250,000 ballots, he needs 74% to force the recount. With 200,000, he needs 80%. Both of those number are still far outside the 54-46 breakdown. As such, it looks unlikely that the provisionals will force an Ohio recount.

Now, in the event that a recount happens, it will be much smoother than in Florida. Ohio has no "intent of the voter" law, which is what caused all the problems in Florida in 2000 (dimpled chads, write ins, etc). Rather, there is a clear standard - if 2 corners are detached, then it counts. Otherwise, it doesn't. It's that simple. And given how everybody knows what a hanging chad is this time around, I would expect a recount to yield a very small change.

So, there's my completely non-professional analysis. It appears that the vote differential is currently large enough to ensure a Bush victory, barring some completely unforseen and out of the blue provisional turnout for Kerry (is there anyone out there who really thinks he'll get 80% of the provisionall ballots?). With this logic, it's easy to understand why 2 networks called it for Bush.

I'm fairly confident my state is in the bag for Bush...which means the Democrats will be trying everything to get fraudulent votes counted (again). Even so, I think that the lead will hold up, the Ohio Supreme Court will help enforce the laws and not legistlate them, and we'll be happy with 4 more years of President Bush.

UPDATE - The Ohio Secretary of State is indicating right now that there were a total of 135,149 provisional ballots issued. Obviously, that's less than the 136,221 margin right now. If those number holds, it mathematically impossible for Kerry to win outright, and he needs to pick up 95% of the provisional ballots to force a recount. It's done.